{
  "schema_version": "0.2.0",
  "seed_version": "0.1.0",
  "mode": "seed",
  "market": "macro",
  "title": "Macro transmission seed",
  "scope": "US and Indian monetary-policy pathways, plus oil-to-gasoline costs. A small structural map, not comprehensive global macro coverage.",
  "reviewed_at": "2026-09-11",
  "license": "MIT — original topology and summaries only; linked sources retain their own terms",
  "limitations": [
    "Structural research starting point; no current prices, financial statements or live alerts.",
    "Source review date is not an observation date or proof of current relationship validity.",
    "Documented means supported by the cited source in its stated context, not independently audited or predictive.",
    "Hypotheses require additional evidence; they must not be promoted automatically."
  ],
  "nodes": [
    {
      "id": "macro:fed",
      "label": "Federal Reserve",
      "type": "institution",
      "source_ids": [
        "fed"
      ],
      "research_question": "What has changed in Federal Reserve, and what evidence supports the change?",
      "observations": []
    },
    {
      "id": "macro:fed-policy",
      "label": "US policy-rate stance",
      "type": "policy",
      "source_ids": [
        "fed"
      ],
      "research_question": "What has changed in US policy-rate stance, and what evidence supports the change?",
      "observations": []
    },
    {
      "id": "macro:credit",
      "label": "US borrowing conditions",
      "type": "driver",
      "source_ids": [
        "fed"
      ],
      "research_question": "What has changed in US borrowing conditions, and what evidence supports the change?",
      "observations": []
    },
    {
      "id": "macro:households",
      "label": "US household spending",
      "type": "driver",
      "source_ids": [
        "fed"
      ],
      "research_question": "What has changed in US household spending, and what evidence supports the change?",
      "observations": []
    },
    {
      "id": "macro:capex",
      "label": "US business investment",
      "type": "driver",
      "source_ids": [
        "fed"
      ],
      "research_question": "What has changed in US business investment, and what evidence supports the change?",
      "observations": []
    },
    {
      "id": "macro:inflation",
      "label": "US inflation",
      "type": "driver",
      "source_ids": [
        "fed"
      ],
      "research_question": "What has changed in US inflation, and what evidence supports the change?",
      "observations": []
    },
    {
      "id": "macro:oil",
      "label": "Crude oil costs",
      "type": "commodity",
      "source_ids": [
        "eia"
      ],
      "research_question": "What has changed in Crude oil costs, and what evidence supports the change?",
      "observations": []
    },
    {
      "id": "macro:gasoline",
      "label": "US gasoline prices",
      "type": "driver",
      "source_ids": [
        "eia"
      ],
      "research_question": "What has changed in US gasoline prices, and what evidence supports the change?",
      "observations": []
    },
    {
      "id": "macro:rbi",
      "label": "Reserve Bank of India",
      "type": "institution",
      "source_ids": [
        "rbi"
      ],
      "research_question": "What has changed in Reserve Bank of India, and what evidence supports the change?",
      "observations": []
    },
    {
      "id": "macro:repo",
      "label": "India repo policy",
      "type": "policy",
      "source_ids": [
        "rbi"
      ],
      "research_question": "What has changed in India repo policy, and what evidence supports the change?",
      "observations": []
    },
    {
      "id": "macro:lending",
      "label": "Indian bank lending rates",
      "type": "driver",
      "source_ids": [
        "rbi"
      ],
      "research_question": "What has changed in Indian bank lending rates, and what evidence supports the change?",
      "observations": []
    }
  ],
  "edges": [
    {
      "from": "macro:fed",
      "to": "macro:fed-policy",
      "relation": "sets_policy",
      "mechanism": "The Fed uses its policy-rate tools to influence financial conditions.",
      "status": "documented",
      "source_ids": [
        "fed"
      ],
      "research_question": "What changed in the latest policy decision and guidance?",
      "id": "macro:edge-01",
      "reviewed_at": "2026-09-11"
    },
    {
      "from": "macro:fed-policy",
      "to": "macro:credit",
      "relation": "influences",
      "mechanism": "Policy-rate changes can transmit to household and business borrowing costs.",
      "status": "documented",
      "source_ids": [
        "fed"
      ],
      "research_question": "Have actual financing costs moved with the policy stance?",
      "id": "macro:edge-02",
      "reviewed_at": "2026-09-11"
    },
    {
      "from": "macro:credit",
      "to": "macro:households",
      "relation": "influences",
      "mechanism": "Borrowing costs influence household spending decisions, alongside other factors.",
      "status": "documented",
      "source_ids": [
        "fed"
      ],
      "research_question": "Is spending responding, and over what lag?",
      "id": "macro:edge-03",
      "reviewed_at": "2026-09-11"
    },
    {
      "from": "macro:credit",
      "to": "macro:capex",
      "relation": "influences",
      "mechanism": "Financing conditions affect firms' incentives to invest.",
      "status": "documented",
      "source_ids": [
        "fed"
      ],
      "research_question": "Do investment plans confirm the proposed financing channel?",
      "id": "macro:edge-04",
      "reviewed_at": "2026-09-11"
    },
    {
      "from": "macro:households",
      "to": "macro:inflation",
      "relation": "may_affect",
      "mechanism": "Demand changes can affect inflation; the sign and size depend on supply and other conditions.",
      "status": "documented",
      "source_ids": [
        "fed"
      ],
      "research_question": "Is the observed inflation change demand-driven?",
      "id": "macro:edge-05",
      "reviewed_at": "2026-09-11"
    },
    {
      "from": "macro:oil",
      "to": "macro:gasoline",
      "relation": "input_cost",
      "mechanism": "Crude oil costs contribute to gasoline prices, alongside refining, distribution and taxes.",
      "status": "documented",
      "source_ids": [
        "eia"
      ],
      "research_question": "How much of an oil move has reached pump prices?",
      "id": "macro:edge-06",
      "reviewed_at": "2026-09-11"
    },
    {
      "from": "macro:gasoline",
      "to": "macro:households",
      "relation": "may_affect",
      "mechanism": "A fuel-cost change may alter household spending elsewhere; this pack does not establish its size.",
      "status": "hypothesis",
      "source_ids": [
        "eia",
        "fed"
      ],
      "research_question": "Is there household-level evidence of a spending substitution?",
      "id": "macro:edge-07",
      "reviewed_at": "2026-09-11"
    },
    {
      "from": "macro:rbi",
      "to": "macro:repo",
      "relation": "sets_policy",
      "mechanism": "The repo rate is a monetary-policy instrument of the RBI framework.",
      "status": "documented",
      "source_ids": [
        "rbi"
      ],
      "research_question": "What is the latest published decision, rather than the last cached rate?",
      "id": "macro:edge-08",
      "reviewed_at": "2026-09-11"
    },
    {
      "from": "macro:repo",
      "to": "macro:lending",
      "relation": "influences",
      "mechanism": "Repo-linked lending can transmit policy changes; other benchmarks and reset terms also matter.",
      "status": "documented",
      "source_ids": [
        "rbi"
      ],
      "research_question": "Which loans are repo-linked and when do they reset?",
      "id": "macro:edge-09",
      "reviewed_at": "2026-09-11"
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "fed",
      "title": "Federal Reserve — How monetary policy affects inflation and employment",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/money_12856.htm",
      "publisher": "Federal Reserve Board",
      "locator": "Main explanation of interest rates, credit, spending and inflation",
      "basis": "General transmission mechanism; not a forecast or current policy reading.",
      "reviewed_at": "2026-09-11",
      "review_after_days": 90
    },
    {
      "id": "eia",
      "title": "EIA — Gasoline price fluctuations",
      "url": "https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/gasoline/price-fluctuations.php",
      "publisher": "US Energy Information Administration",
      "locator": "Crude oil prices and retail gasoline prices",
      "basis": "General cost relationship, not current oil or pump prices.",
      "reviewed_at": "2026-09-11",
      "review_after_days": 90
    },
    {
      "id": "rbi",
      "title": "RBI — Monetary policy framework and transmission",
      "url": "https://rbi.org.in/scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?Id=18086",
      "publisher": "Reserve Bank of India",
      "locator": "Monetary policy objectives, repo instrument and external benchmark lending",
      "basis": "Institutional framework; verify current rules and lending terms separately.",
      "reviewed_at": "2026-09-11",
      "review_after_days": 90
    }
  ],
  "update_plan": {
    "cadence": "user_selected",
    "network_access": "not_implemented",
    "instructions": [
      "Re-open the linked primary sources and look for newer disclosures.",
      "Preserve old evidence and its reporting period; do not overwrite history.",
      "Record publication, observation and retrieval times separately for new observations.",
      "Review hypotheses independently; do not treat a source's general context as proof.",
      "Validate references and review proposed changes before merging into your repository."
    ]
  }
}